Summary:
Gold prices fell to a seven-month low as a stronger US dollar and expectations of Fed rate hikes reduced demand for the safe-haven asset. Spot gold slipped below $4,000 per ounce, while MCX gold and silver also remained under pressure. Investors are now awaiting key US inflation data and Fed policy signals for further direction.
On June 25, gold prices continued to be under downward pressure after dipping below the crucial level of $4,000 an ounce, which it hadn't touched since November 2025, on account of the US dollar remaining near the 13-month high due to speculation that the US Federal Reserve may hike interest rates thrice this year in order to tame inflation.
Spot gold was down 0.7% at $3,971.08 per ounce, and US gold futures for August delivery was down 0.5% at $3,987 per ounce. The yellow metal has lost nearly 29% from its all-time high of $5,594.82 per ounce seen on January 29, 2026.
Markets have been factoring in a tightening of monetary policies with traders giving a probability of nearly 67% of a rate hike in September. Interest rate hikes make holding non-interest-bearing instruments like gold less appealing while giving strength to the US dollar.
Explore: Probable Reasons for Gold Prices Falling
MCX Gold and Silver Extend Losses
Echoing a sense of frailty in international precious metals markets, the prices of gold and silver on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) moved downwards on Thursday morning. MCX August Futures of gold fell by 0.37% to ₹1,40,749 per 10 grams, while MCX July Futures of silver slipped by 1.07% to ₹2,10,801 per kilogram.
The price slide was triggered by a marked surge in the value of the dollar index, which stood at 101.80 on Wednesday, the highest it has been since last year. While the index was lower on Thursday, it stayed above 101.00, thus pushing up the price of dollar-denominated metals for other buyers.
Bearish Trend Remains Intact
Sentiment in the precious metal market remains negative as investors remain worried about the extended period of higher interest rates. The break below the critical $4,000 level in gold prices has increased fears that further declines are not out of the question in the coming days.
Technical signals are also pointing toward a bearish outlook in the short-term as the MCX Gold August Futures is trading below the significant moving averages. The contract has traded below the critical ₹1,45,000 support area.
While prices remain below ₹1,45,000, any rally could find it difficult to gather momentum. The major support levels could be around ₹1,40,000 and ₹1,36,000.
Key Levels to Watch
It is believed that investors must not indulge in aggressive bottom-fishing in gold and silver considering the huge fall in prices due to the high volatility expected in the market ahead of important economic data from the US.
For MCX Gold, the immediate support can be seen around ₹1,40,000 and ₹1,38,800, whereas resistance stands at ₹1,42,400 and ₹1,43,350. As far as silver is concerned, support exists at ₹2,09,100 and ₹2,05,000, whereas resistance exists at ₹2,16,600 and ₹2,21,000.
Market players are currently waiting for important inflation data from the US – US PCE inflation data – which serves as the inflation barometer of the Fed for clues regarding the interest rate scenario. Investors will also keep an eye on the situation in the Middle East region – US-Iran dialogue and Lebanon-Israel dialogue – among other things.
