Summary:
Nifty prediction for October 8: Nifty 50 closed at 22,603.05 on October 7, down 0.76% after the RBI raised the repo rate to 5.50%. Traders will track 22,500 support, 22,625–22,800 resistance and 23,076.90 for further direction.
Nifty Prediction Today, October 8: 22,500 Support in Focus
The Nifty 50 ended its two-session recovery on Wednesday, October 7, as selling pressure returned following the Reserve Bank of India's decision to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% and adopt a calibrated tightening stance. The benchmark index declined 173.05 points, or 0.76%, to settle at 22,603.05.
The index opened at 22,690.45 and touched an intraday high of 22,717.65 before slipping to a low of 22,546.30. Although Nifty managed to recover from its lowest level, it failed to sustain the rebound and closed in the lower half of its trading range. The price action suggests that sellers continue to dominate at higher levels, raising concerns about whether the index can defend the crucial 22,500 mark in Thursday's session.
What are the key Nifty levels for October 8?
| Nifty Level | October 8 Outlook |
| Previous close | 22,603.05 |
| Previous-day change | 22769.74 |
| Immediate support | 22,500–22,546 |
| Major support | 22,221.85 |
| First resistance | 22,625–22,715 |
| Key resistance | 22,770–22,800 |
| Higher resistance | 23,076.90 |
| Upside level | 23,000 |
| Daily RSI | 33.13 |
Market Breadth Weakens as Selling Pressure Returns
The weakness was widespread, with 41 of the 50 Nifty constituents ending in negative territory, while only nine stocks managed to close higher. The sharp deterioration in market breadth reflected renewed selling interest following the recovery witnessed in the previous two sessions.
However, Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Media displayed relative resilience amid the broader decline. Despite pockets of strength, the overall market structure remained weak, indicating that the recent recovery has yet to develop into a meaningful reversal.
Nifty Technical Outlook: Resistance at 22,770–22,800 Remains Crucial
The daily chart continues to reflect a bearish underlying trend, with Nifty struggling to sustain gains near the 22,770–22,800 resistance zone. The index is currently trading below its short-term exponential moving average (EMA) near 22,771, while the broader alignment of moving averages continues to favour sellers.
The 23,076.90 level remains an important overhead resistance, and a sustained recovery above this mark would be required to improve the broader technical structure. On the downside, the psychological level of 22,500 assumes immediate importance, followed by the major positional support at 22,221.85.
The hourly chart also indicates fading buying interest, with Nifty trading below the short-term EMA cluster positioned between 22,625 and 22,714. This suggests that the recent upward momentum has weakened considerably.
Meanwhile, the 15-minute chart shows Nifty hovering around its short-term moving average zone of 22,609–22,639. A decisive move above 22,640–22,715 could encourage fresh buying and support an intraday recovery. However, continued rejection near these levels may allow bears to maintain their grip on the market.
Key technical levels for October 8:
- 22,500–22,546: Immediate support
- 22,221.85: Major positional support
- 22,625–22,715: First resistance zone
- 22,770–22,800: Key resistance
- 23,000: Next upside level
- 23,076.90: Major overhead resistance
A decisive break below 22,500 could increase selling pressure towards 22,221.85.
Momentum Indicators Suggest Further Downside Risk
Momentum indicators remain tilted towards the bearish side, although the index has not entered deeply oversold territory.
On the daily timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 33.13, indicating subdued momentum and proximity to the conventional oversold threshold of 30. While this suggests that selling pressure has been significant, it does not necessarily indicate that a reversal is imminent.
The hourly RSI of 47.69 and the 15-minute RSI of 46.02 point to a loss of momentum following the recent recovery. Both readings remain below the neutral level of 50, suggesting that buyers have yet to regain a clear short-term advantage.
A sustained break below Wednesday's low of 22,546.30 could further weaken momentum and increase the possibility of a decline towards 22,500.
Nifty RSI Indicates Weak Momentum
Nifty's momentum indicators remain subdued.
- Daily RSI: 33.13
- Hourly RSI: 47.69
- 15-minute RSI: 46.02
The daily RSI is close to the conventional oversold threshold of 30, but it does not by itself indicate that a reversal is imminent.
The hourly and 15-minute RSI readings remain below 50, indicating that buyers have not yet regained a clear short-term advantage.
A sustained break below Wednesday's low of 22,546.30 could further weaken momentum and bring 22,500 into focus.
Nifty Support and Resistance Levels for October 8
Support Levels
For Thursday's trading session, the 22,500–22,546 region will serve as the immediate support zone. A decisive breakdown below this area could intensify selling pressure and bring the next major support at 22,221.85 into focus.
Resistance Levels
On the upside, Nifty is likely to encounter its first resistance between 22,625 and 22,715, where multiple short-term moving averages are positioned. Beyond this, the 22,770–22,800 band remains a significant hurdle.
What Happens If Nifty Breaks 22,500?
A decisive and sustained break below 22,500 could intensify selling pressure and expose Nifty to the next major support at 22,221.85.
However, a brief intraday move below 22,500 should not automatically be interpreted as a confirmed breakdown. Traders would need to monitor whether the index sustains below the level on the relevant timeframe.
What Happens If Nifty Reclaims 22,800?
If the index manages to reclaim and sustain above 22,800, the recovery could extend towards 23,000, followed by 23,076.90. However, unless Nifty moves convincingly above the 22,715–22,800 resistance region, any upward movement may continue to face selling pressure.
Conclusion
Nifty enters the October 8 trading session with a cautious technical outlook after surrendering its two-day recovery. Weak market breadth, bearish moving average alignment and subdued momentum indicators suggest that sellers retain the upper hand.
The immediate focus will be on whether Nifty can protect the 22,500 support level. A sustained break below this mark could expose the index to further weakness, while a recovery above 22,715 and subsequently 22,800 would be an encouraging development for bulls.
For now, 22,500 on the downside and 22,800 on the upside remain the two critical levels that could determine Nifty's next directional move.
