Summary:
Nifty options positioning around the 24,000 strike remains a key focus ahead of the September 29 expiry. Despite the index slipping below this level, significant put and call open interest reflects market expectations, while crude oil and bond yields remain key risks.
The Nifty 50 has slipped below the crucial 24,000 mark in September, but derivatives data indicates that some options traders continue to maintain a positive view for a possible recovery by the month end expiry on 29 September. The 24,000 put option has emerged as the key level, with traders holding significant positions around this strike.
As per options data, the 24,000 put expiring on 29 September had 93,151 contracts outstanding, while the 24,000 call had 130,891 contracts outstanding. Both strikes recorded the highest concentration among available Nifty options levels, indicating strong positioning around the 24,000 zone.
The expectation among some market participants is that if global uncertainties reduce towards the end of the month, including easing concerns around West Asia tensions, the index could attempt a recovery towards the 24,000 level. However, continued pressure from crude oil prices and rising bond yields remains a key risk for markets.
Nifty Falls Below Key Support Amid Global Pressure
The Nifty 50 has witnessed selling pressure after losing the 24,000 support zone. Rising crude oil prices, elevated global bond yields and concerns over inflation have impacted investor sentiment. The index recently moved towards a five month low, with global factors remaining a major influence on market direction.
Brent crude prices have remained elevated amid geopolitical tensions, creating concerns for India as a major oil importer. Higher crude prices can increase import costs, put pressure on the rupee and influence inflation expectations. The rise in global bond yields has also increased concerns around interest rates and liquidity conditions.
The US 10 year bond yield has moved towards historically high levels, while the Indian 10 year benchmark bond yield has also seen an increase. These factors have contributed to caution among equity investors.
Expiry Positioning Suggests Traders Are Watching A Recovery
Options traders have maintained positions around the 24,000 strike despite the recent decline in the index. Put sellers generally benefit if the market remains above their chosen strike, which indicates expectations of stability around this level.
However, the recent rise in option premiums suggests that volatility has increased. Some traders have reduced positions as crude prices and bond yields continued to move higher, creating uncertainty around the market’s near term direction.
The Nifty options market is also reflecting a wider range of expectations. Earlier technical observations indicated that the 24,000 zone remained an important level, with further support emerging near lower levels if selling pressure continued.
