IGL & Gujarat Gas Q4 FY26 Earnings Preview: LNG Price Surge, Margin Pressure in Focus

Let's break down what investors can realistically expect, and what the numbers might mean for your portfolio.

The Big Picture: A Tough Quarter for Margins

The March 2026 quarter saw Brent crude rise 67% sequentially, a number that already tells you half the story. But it's not just crude. Spot LNG prices averaged $13.2/mmbtu during the quarter, up sharply from $10.9/mmbtu in Q3 FY26. Add a Henry Hub price of $4.9/mmbtu and a rupee that depreciated about 2.8% quarter-on-quarter, and you have a perfect storm of input cost pressure for CGD companies.

In plain terms: the gas that these companies buy to distribute to your home or your CNG-powered car got significantly more expensive in Q4. And passing that entire cost to consumers isn't always straightforward, especially in a politically sensitive environment.

IGL: A Marginal Slip, Not a Collapse

For Indraprastha Gas Ltd (IGL), earnings likely to decline year-on-year for Q4 FY26. That might sound alarming at first glance, but context matters. To understand the scale, consider that IGL ended FY25 with a PAT of ₹1,468 crore despite a 13% rise in gas costs that year. The company showed genuine resilience, Q4 FY25 itself saw a 22% QoQ PAT jump and a 37% EBITDA increase.

So the mild decline projected for Q4 FY26 is more a case of a high base effect meeting elevated input costs, rather than anything structurally broken. IGL's CNG volumes — which still account for over 70% of its business — remained reasonably steady, and the domestic PNG segment continues to add customers.

Management had guided for 10% volume growth in FY26, driven by PNG expansion and new geographical area momentum. Whether they hit that number exactly will become clearer when results are declared.

Gujarat Gas: The Steeper Challenge

Gujarat Gas is expected to have a harder time in Q4 FY26, with a decline in earnings. This is a more meaningful compression, and there are several reasons for it.

Gujarat Gas is significantly more exposed to industrial gas demand, and that's precisely the segment that took the biggest hit during the West Asia supply disruptions. Industrial customers in Gujarat, particularly in ceramics, glass, and chemicals, faced curtailments and operational disruptions. The Gujarat ceramics industry reportedly had to shut down portions of capacity due to the shortage. For a company whose revenue base leans heavily on industrial volumes, that's a meaningful drag.

Additionally, Gujarat Gas sources a larger proportion of its requirements from spot LNG, which means input cost volatility hits it harder and faster than peers with more long-term contracted gas.

What Investors Should Watch 

What will determine the next leg of the story? Management commentary on volume trajectory, any price hike announcements for CNG/PNG, and, critically, whether the ceasefire in West Asia holds and LNG spot prices normalise.

Final Thoughts

Q4 FY26 will likely be remembered as a quarter where the numbers disappointed but the long-term fundamentals didn't change. For patient investors, results season might actually present an opportunity if stocks fall on weaker-than-expected earnings. The underlying expansion story, more PNG connections, more CNG stations, more geographical areas, remains intact.

Keep a close eye on the margin trajectory and gas sourcing mix commentary when IGL and Gujarat Gas hold their earnings calls. That's where the real signals for FY27 will come from.