Naive Projections in a Complex World

By Hemant Majethia 2 min Read Sep 22, 2025

_{About the Author: Mr. Hemant Majethia, Director and Co-Founder of Ventura Securities.}
_{Hemant Majethia is a key architect of Ventura's vision and growth. He is a passionate market observer and seasoned investor, who has cultivated a blend of sharp financial acumen and relentless curiosity for technology and innovation.
A qualified Chartered Accountant, he also serves as Director of the Association of National Exchanges Members of India (ANMI). With years of experience and market expertise, Hemant regularly writes research-backed articles and provides in-depth stock analysis, helping investors make informed investment decisions.}

Essayist, mathematical statistician and former option trader, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who is best known for coining and popularizing the term ‘Black Swan events’, shared some thought-provoking observations recently.

In a piece titled ‘The World in Which We Live Now’, he describes seven overarching socio-economic-geo-political trends that are currently emerging (https://tinyurl.com/2s45efek).

While every single one of them can stop you in your tracks and make you think hard about how we are progressing, the one that really hit home the hardest for me was DYNAMICS AND MISUNDERSTANDING OF HISTORICAL PROCESSES.

With respect to that trend he comments, “Both GDP and its rate of growth can fool one in projecting future states; but errors from ignoring growth differentials can be monstrous owing to their compounding. When in doubt, use the rate of growth as status quo.”

It made me realise how complex the new world we live in is. New technologies – be it AI, EV, drones, to name a few – are progressing exponentially. We’re witnessing wars – both physical and via trade. The chorus around de-dollarization is growing and fascination with crypto-currencies doesn’t seem to be fading soon enough. Amongst others.

In this increasingly unpredictable world, with indistinct dynamics, his conclusion rings so true: “𝑂𝑢𝑟 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑜𝑓𝑡𝑒𝑛 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙 𝑏𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑢𝑠𝑒 𝑤𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑙𝑦 𝑜𝑛 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑦𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑡, 𝑖𝑔𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑-𝑜𝑟𝑑𝑒𝑟 𝑒𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑠.”

𝐃𝐨 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐚𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐞?

_{Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog are personal and intended to spark thought and conversation. They do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or entity. They are not intended to hurt, offend, or ridicule anyone, and if any such impact is caused, it is purely unintentional.}