Summary:
Nifty ended October 12 at 22,363.35, down 0.70%, as selling pressure returned. For October 13, traders will monitor support near 22,222, resistance between 22,427 and 22,600, moving averages, RSI momentum and foreign investor activity.
The Nifty 50 ended Monday's session, October 12, on a weak note, shedding 157.10 points, or 0.70%, to settle at 22,363.35. Despite beginning the day on a positive footing at 22,593.20 and climbing to an intraday high of 22,651.10, the index failed to maintain its upward momentum. Selling intensified during the session, dragging Nifty to a low of 22,304.45.
Persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) selling, concerns surrounding crude oil prices and inflation-related uncertainty kept market sentiment subdued. The sharp reversal from higher levels suggests that sellers continue to dominate rallies, while buying interest remains insufficient to support a sustained recovery.
Negative Market Breadth Highlights Lack of Buying Support
The weakness was reflected in market breadth, as 36 Nifty 50 constituents ended in negative territory, while only 14 managed to close higher. Although Media, Defence and Auto stocks displayed relative resilience, buying activity remained concentrated in select pockets of the market.
The absence of broad-based participation indicates that investors remain cautious, with selling pressure outweighing attempts at recovery.
Nifty Technical Outlook: Moving Averages Continue to Restrict Upside
From a technical perspective, Nifty remains under pressure as it continues to trade below important moving averages on the daily timeframe. The index settled at 22,363.35, significantly below its immediate exponential moving average (EMA) resistance at 22,580.51. Another important resistance is placed near 22,891.71.
The prevailing price structure continues to favour sellers, with the index struggling to establish a convincing recovery. On the downside, 22,221.85 remains an important level to monitor. A sustained decline below this support could increase the possibility of Nifty moving towards the 22,000 level.
On the hourly timeframe, Nifty is positioned below a cluster of moving averages between 22,386 and 22,537. This zone could act as a supply area during any recovery attempt.
Meanwhile, the 15-minute chart shows the index trading close to its immediate EMA at 22,348. However, the presence of higher moving averages above the current market price indicates that upside momentum remains restricted. For a meaningful improvement in the intraday structure, Nifty would need to move decisively above the 22,427–22,537 resistance band.
RSI Analysis: Momentum Remains Weak Across Timeframes
Momentum indicators continue to reflect a cautious market environment. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 34.04, indicating subdued momentum and continued weakness in the broader trend.
On shorter timeframes, the hourly RSI stands at 42.44, while the 15-minute RSI is at 44.53. Both readings remain below the 50 mark, suggesting that buyers have yet to establish meaningful control.
Although occasional rebounds cannot be ruled out, the current RSI structure does not indicate a convincing shift in momentum. A sustained improvement above 50 on the hourly RSI, supported by stronger price action, would be an early indication of improving buying interest.
Nifty Support and Resistance Levels for October 13
The 22,300–22,222 range is likely to serve as the immediate support zone for Nifty. A sustained breakdown below 22,221.85 could trigger additional selling pressure and open the possibility of a decline towards 22,000.
On the higher side, the 22,427–22,537 band remains the first important resistance area. A move beyond this range could encourage a recovery towards 22,580–22,600, where further selling pressure may emerge.
If the index manages to cross and sustain above 22,600, the next upside levels to watch would be 22,750 and 22,890.
Nifty Outlook: Recovery Attempts May Face Selling Pressure
The technical structure of Nifty continues to indicate a weak underlying trend, with lower timeframe indicators offering limited evidence of sustained buying interest.
For the October 13 trading session, the market's behaviour around 22,300–22,222 will be important in determining whether the index can stabilise or extend its decline. While short-covering rallies may emerge, a sustained move above 22,537–22,600 would be necessary to improve the near-term outlook.
Until these resistance levels are reclaimed, the broader market setup remains cautious, with the possibility of renewed selling pressure at higher levels.
