Anant Raj Limited: Q4 FY26 Preview & Annual FY26 Outlook

As of 10:42 am the share price of Anant Raj Ltd was trading at ₹459.30 per share up by 0.91%. In the last one year the stock price has given returns of 10.30% while in last 3 years it is up by 238.86%.

The Journey So Far: 9M FY26 in Review

The performance achieved in the first nine months of FY26 is exceptional. Operations' revenue saw an increase of 22.74% year-on-year to ₹1,864.79 crore, EBITDA jumped by 38.95% to ₹527.13 crore, while PAT witnessed a 32.99% increase to ₹408.31 crore. Quarter-wise, Q3 FY26 witnessed operations' revenue of ₹641.59 crore (a year-on-year rise of 20%), EBITDA of ₹188.55 crore (~32% YoY growth), and PAT of ₹144.23 crore (30.68% YoY growth). EBITDA margin of Q3 FY26 came in at 28.55%, representing a massive 229 bps increase from Q3 of the previous year.

From a broader perspective, the organization has demonstrated phenomenal growth in terms of revenue at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 69%, and PAT at a massive 149% CAGR from FY21 to FY25. The net debt burden of the company which was a matter of concern previously has come down from ₹1,494 crore in FY21

Q4 FY26: What to Watch

1. Data Centre Revenue Inflection

This is the most important variable for Q4. Guidance from management has always pointed out that the full potential for revenue from its 28 MW operational capacity of IT load would start materialising from Q4 FY26. In the Q2 FY26 results presentation, management indicated that "handover of capacity at Panchkula would be completed in Q3" and "all of the revenue potential would come in Q4." As per the first nine months of FY26, the data centre infrastructure and allied services had generated revenue of ₹101.99 crore, which is an impressive figure, but one which is set to accelerate substantially with rent-free periods ending and full capacity utilisation kicking off.

Moreover, management indicated that the growth of the company’s cloud platform "Ashok Cloud," which has been built in partnership with Orange Business, for deployment at both Manesar and Panchkula sites had been progressing in an "advanced stage" and expected to go operational during Q4 FY26. The cloud business generates much better margins compared to colocation businesses and, hence, timing is very important for Q4.

Management guidance has indicated that revenues for the data centre leasing would exceed ₹50 crore in FY26 and reach ₹100 crore in the medium term. Q4 is when this ramp truly begins.

2. The Estate One Launch, A Potential Pre-Sales Catalyst

From the real estate angle, the big launch for Q4 will be that of The Estate One (Group Housing 2) at Golf Course Extension Road, Sector 63A, Gurugram, which is a 5.09-acre luxury high-rise project that will have a saleable area of about 1.09 million sq. ft. and revenue upside of ₹2,180 crore. The project has already obtained all necessary clearances and has been confirmed to go ahead in Q4 FY26. The expectation has risen since The Estate Residences (Group Housing 1), which is a 248-unit luxury high-rise in the same stretch, has been making sales at an average price of ₹18,000/sq. ft.

While the launch in Q4 won’t generate revenue in Q4 (Ind-AS follows the Percentage of Completion model of revenue recognition), pre-sales and advance payments will increase visibility into revenue for FY27 and FY28.

On the other hand, permission for yet another Group Housing project of more than 6.39 acres is expected in Q4, along with approval of Phase V of Anant Raj Estate, which comprises 9.11875 acres in Sector 63A.

3. Project Navya Delivery and Revenue Recognition

The Project Navya, which is a joint venture between Avarna Projects LLP and Birla Estates on a 50:50 basis, has now been issued an Occupancy Certificate, with deliveries set to begin in Q4 FY26. This is critical since the issuance of an OC certificate and delivery beginning usually means faster income recognition under Ind-AS rules. However, since this is a joint venture, the income generated will be split evenly, yet remains an incremental contributor.

4. Full-Year FY26 Numbers: The Extrapolation

At an FY26 PAT of ₹408.31 crore, the company will need close to ₹170+ crore PAT for Q4 FY26 to exceed ₹575 crore for the whole year, thus marking around a 35% increase from FY25 PAT of ₹426 crore. In view of the data centre ramp-up, Navya delivery revenues, and the completion of residential projects like Ashok Estate (almost complete in Q3 FY26 for the 20 acres/1.34 million sq. ft. project), this seems possible.

Regarding revenues, the FY25 full-year figure stood at ₹2,060 crore. This is likely to easily exceed ₹2,500 crore for FY26, with Q4 being the best performing quarter due to a combination of data centres, real estate deliveries, and cloud services.

The Bigger Picture: FY27 and Beyond

The real buzz behind Anant Raj does not revolve just around the quarter-on-quarter results, but more importantly in the possibility of re-rating due to scale in data centres and clouds.

Data Centre Capacity Roadmap: The firm has indicated a roadmap of reaching 357 MW IT load capacity by 2032, which will be achieved through expansion at Manesar to 50 MW, Panchkula to 57 MW, Rai (Sonipat) to 200 MW, and Andhra Pradesh to 50 MW (through a memorandum of understanding with the state government, with ARCPL making an investment of about ₹4,500 crore). In the short term, an additional 35 MW capacity at Manesar and Rai will be commissioned by FY27, along with Ashok Cloud Services.

Residential Pipeline: Even though there are 11.41 million sq. ft. of upcoming projects in the real estate business, this sector continues to be an important source of income. Anant Raj Estate in Sector 63A, Gurgaon, consists of many phases involving luxurious flats, independent floors, plots, and villas, and is still highly priced. Work for Phase IV (6.075 acres and ~5 lakh sq. ft.) has already been started, and also construction of the club in this township has been initiated.

Delhi Development Unlocking: The company’s low-cost land holdings in high-end Delhi locations totaling 83.43 acres of fully paid-up land on a freehold basis have perhaps been overlooked by the market. This land base has been with the company for many years with almost zero holding costs and can be unlocked in stages as the real estate cycle advances further. Furthermore, the increase in the commercial Floor Space Index (FSI) from 0.15 to 1.75 at the Anant Raj Center 1 (Chattarpur) location, which is already approved, will result in an additional leaseable space of 4.90 lakh square feet, generating ₹55 crore per year in rent income.

Annuity Business Strength: With a total commercial leasing area of 1.92 million square feet, including information technology parks (Panchkula), commercial buildings (Sector 44, Gurgaon), and hotels, all leased on long-term leases, this assures consistent income generation that acts as insurance in the event of volatility in the real estate sector cycle.

Key Risks to Monitor

Though the story is appealing, a few risk factors must be kept in mind for investors. To start with, the timings for the revenue ramp-up cycle of the data centres have tended to slip by a quarter or two. The management has assured that revenue will come in from all 28 MW by Q4 FY26. Any slippage in the operationalisation/occupancy of Ashok Clouds would temper the story. Secondly, large capital expenditure commitments (of ₹4,500 crore for Andhra Pradesh), although fully funded according to the management, are always execution-related risk factors.

Bottom Line

Anant Raj Limited goes into Q4 FY26 with perhaps its most crucial quarter in the history of the firm thus far. The combination of a higher data centre contribution, the launch of Ashok Cloud, The Estate One, delivery of Project Navya and an almost debt-free balance sheet gives Anant Raj all that it needs for a good end to the year.

While quarterly numbers are not the issue, Q4 FY26 will really test whether Anant Raj can deliver its data centre story, which is arguably the biggest factor that can drive the valuation re-rate of this traditionally real estate-focused firm towards digital infrastructure and real estate combined. The ingredients are all there. It just comes down to delivery now.