Gold Outlook Remains Bullish; Silver Set for Expansion Phase from March 2026

Gold & Silver remained volatile after logging wild swings in the past two weeks, remaining well below late-January peaks. They were sitting on some gains from the prior week, as a mix of dip-buying and weakness in the dollar, supported Gold & Silver.

Safe haven buying was spurred due to heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran. But the trades were well below their late-January peaks, logging a series of volatile swings due to uncertainty over the outlook for U.S interest rates. Market attention was gradually shifting to the potential impact of tariffs, which has yet to emerge in the economic and inflation data and doubts remaining about FED’s credibility. The long-term view on Gold remains largely positive.

Tariff-driven inflation is likely to have peaked, opening door for further easing by the Federal Reserve. Headline US Consumer Price Index rose at a cooler then expected pace of 2.40% in January. The sooner than expected reduction could be in June 2026. Markets expect two such rate reductions in 2026 against a shifting Fed leadership narrative. A disinflationary trend has caught up, supporting the rate reduction. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson has predicted that disinflation will continue in 2026, aided by strong productivity growth.

The US Dollar Index lost momentum as disinflation signals came to the forefront closing below the psychological 97 level. This week’s FOMC minutes (Feb 18^th )  and PMI data (Feb 20^th ) may decide whether Dollar Index breaks 96 or reclaims 98. Its trapped between cooling inflation and political uncertainty.

Weaker Dollar and rate cut expectations in 2026 will drive Gold beyond $5600.

Silver’s current corrective structure appears consistent with this historical pattern of accumulation before expansion. Seasonally, the Chinese New Year period (Up to Feb 20^th ) often produces temporary volatility and lighter institutional participation. Once the holiday concludes liquidity and physical demand will rise.

This transition is a cyclical behavior beginning late February or early March and would get extended to the balance of the year. Silver is entering a critical time-cycle phase. A breakout above $80 marks the start of the expansion phase.

Expansion Journey

February 15^th to 18^th – Price expected to establish short-term direction. An accumulation stage. Floor established between $74 - $75.

February 20^th to 24^th – Price action acts as a confirmation. Beyond $80 provides a target of $85 - $90.

February 26^th to March 5^th – A larger expansion with the highest probability of a breakout with sustained directional move above $90.