Why ONGC, Oil India Shares Prices Rally up to 10% –  Know the Reason

Sharp Rally in ONGC & Oil India Trading Volumes

Oil India’s spike in price coincided with a multi-fold jump in average trading volumes, with a combined over 20 million shares changing hands on the NSE and BSE. The stock surpassed its previous 52-week high of ₹491.65, touched on June 16, 2025. At 12:59 PM, Oil India was trading 8.31% higher at ₹485.90, while ONGC saw 60.32 million equity shares traded combined on BSE & NSE.

The surge reflects both heightened investor interest and the direct impact of rising Brent crude prices on the profitability of upstream oil firms.

Global Oil Supply Concerns Boost Prices

According to data on Tuesday, Brent crude futures rose $1.98 (3%) to $67.57 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $1.76 (2.9%) to $62.39 per barrel, after a severe winter storm disrupted US crude output. The storm temporarily brought US Gulf Coast crude exports to zero and strained energy infrastructure, resulting in an estimated 2 million barrels per day loss, equivalent to about 15% of national production.

Additionally, supply-side concerns from Kazakhstan and rising Middle East tensions, including the deployment of US naval forces in response to Iran’s domestic unrest, have further supported crude prices. Once supply fears ease, selling pressure may return.

Direct Correlation Between Brent and Upstream Profits

Upstream oil companies like ONGC and Oil India benefit directly from rising crude prices. Per barrel change in Brent can impact Oil India’s standalone EPS, while a 1 INR/USD depreciation can increase earnings. This tight correlation explains why investor sentiment toward these stocks strengthens with every uptick in global crude prices.

ONGC’s Developments and Expansion Plans

ONGC recently announced shipbuilding contracts with Samsung Heavy Industries, South Korea, for the construction of two Very Large Ethane Carriers (VLECs) in joint ventures with Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Japan. These carriers will support the transport of approximately 600 KTPA of ethane for OPaL, ONGC’s subsidiary, strengthening its downstream logistics.

Meanwhile, ONGC is also seeking technical experts for its western offshore oilfields, floating tenders to global majors like Shell, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, and Chevron. The company aims to finalise the process by June 2026, reflecting its commitment to upgrading technical capabilities.

Policy Tailwinds and Exploration Opportunities

India’s upstream sector is poised for long-term growth, supported by government policies aimed at boosting domestic hydrocarbon production and reducing import dependence. The government targets expanding the exploration area to 1 million sq. km by 2030, with a 99% reduction in offshore ‘No-Go’ zones, opening vast new areas for oil and gas exploration.

Oil India’s Refinery Expansion

Oil India’s subsidiary, Numaligarh Refinery Ltd (NRL), planned to expand capacity from 3 MMTPA to 9 MMTPA starting December 2025. However, operations have been delayed, with the new timeline expected to commence in Q4FY26, gradually ramping up production in subsequent quarters. 

ONGC & Oil India Share Price Surge in Recent Times

ONGC share price gained nearly 11% over the past five days and 13.55% in the last month, hitting a 52-week high of ₹269.50 per share. Oil India share price surged 13.88% in the last five days and over 20.52% in the past month, reaching ₹492 per share. The bullish momentum reflects a combination of rising crude prices, strategic corporate developments, and government-backed exploration policies.

Conclusion

The recent surge in ONGC and Oil India shows how upstream oil companies remain highly sensitive to global oil market dynamics. Supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, refinery expansions, and policy support in India have all contributed to renewed investor optimism. With Brent crude prices trending higher, these companies are well-positioned to capitalise on both short-term market volatility and long-term growth opportunities in India’s evolving energy landscape.