Volatility in financial markets often mirrors investor sentiment. In India, the India VIX, known as the "fear gauge," reflects the market’s volatility and expectation of future swings. A rising VIX usually signals panic or uncertainty, while extremely low levels often indicate calm—but history shows that these calm periods can precede strong market rallies.
As of September 18, 2025, the India VIX has dropped below 10 to a low of 9.49, a level rarely seen in the recent past. This mirrors an environment where market participants feel confident, and near-term volatility is expected to remain low.
On the same day, the Nifty 50 traded around the 25,425 mark, up by 0.37% as of 11:39 am IST.
The India VIX slipped below the level of 10 after the US Federal Reserve cut the benchmark rate by 25 bps to 4%–4.25%. The India VIX index has declined 19.23% in the past month, while the Nifty 50 has now moved up 2.13%.
Extremely low VIX readings can sometimes indicate that traders are becoming too comfortable or complacent. At the same time, increased activity in options writing suggests that many investors are expecting only small movements in the market in the near term.
Looking at past patterns, periods of low VIX have often been followed by meaningful gains in the Nifty.
In April 2017, the VIX dropped to 10.44, and over the next three months, the Nifty gained 4.24%. Over six months, the index rose 9.36%, and after one year, it delivered a 11.52% gain.
Similarly, in July 2023, the VIX touched the level of 10.13. The Nifty initially corrected by 2.57% over three months, but it rebounded strongly, rising 10.65% in six months and 26.42% over one year.
These examples suggest that while short-term corrections can occur, medium- to long-term trends after low VIX periods have historically been positive, with six- to twelve-month returns.
Several factors explain the current calm in the Indian market.
The current low India VIX reflects reduced market volatility, often associated with a ‘risk-on’ environment. Historically, periods of subdued volatility have coincided with positive equity market phases, rewarding patient investors.
Over the past month, India VIX has eased, while broader indices — including mid-cap and small-cap segments — have recorded gains of around 3%. However, while a low VIX signals stability, it should be viewed alongside other market indicators rather than as a standalone predictor of future rallies.
The India VIX hitting historic lows is more than just a statistic—it reflects market sentiment. Although short-term trends may fluctuate, historical patterns indicate that periods of low volatility often precede significant equity rallies.
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