Indian markets are set for a positive start on Monday, November 24, 2025, taking strong cues from Wall Street’s rebound. On Friday, November 21, US equities ended the session firmly in the green, with the Dow Jones gaining over 1%. The recovery was driven by comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who signalled that further rate cuts remain a possibility — easing the anxiety created by the Fed’s recent hawkish tone.
At 7:21 AM, the GIFT Nifty was trading 79 points higher, above the 26,150 mark, indicating a strong opening for Indian markets.
1) US–India Trade Deal Hopes:
Renewed optimism has emerged as both countries move closer to finalising a mutually beneficial trade agreement.
2) Wall Street’s AI-Fueled Rally:
Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings and upbeat guidance reignited the AI trade, lifting major US indices.
3) Crude Oil Prices in Freefall:
Oil futures have slid below $58 per barrel, after OPEC signalled an adequate supply environment. This sharp fall is a positive macro tailwind for India, given its import dependence.
In an unfortunate incident last week, a Tejas fighter jet of the Indian Air Force (IAF) crashed in a ball of fire during an aerial display at the Dubai Air Show. The timing is significant, as it comes at a moment when India is accelerating its indigenous defence manufacturing programme. As a result, HAL and other defence-sector stocks may see heightened attention and volatility on Monday.
Q2 FY26 GDP Data: The National Statistics Office (NSO) will release India’s official GDP growth data for the July–September quarter on November 28. This will be a crucial macro datapoint for market direction.
Institutional Flows: FII Selling, DIIs Absorb Supply
On Friday, November 21:
Domestic markets ended lower on Friday after touching fresh 52-week highs in the previous session. Broad-based profit booking dragged the indices as they approached record territory.
Both benchmarks are now about 0.8% below their record highs. India VIX jumped over 10%, closing above 13.5, signalling a rise in near-term volatility.
Broader markets corrected more sharply, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 slipping over 1%.
US markets staged a strong comeback after New York Fed President John Williams indicated there is still “room for a further adjustment in the near term” to bring rates closer to neutral.
According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the Fed meeting on December 10 surged to 72%, up sharply from 39% a day earlier.
WTI crude futures continued to trade with a negative bias, falling to a one-month low. OPEC’s revised outlook now projects a supply surplus of roughly 500,000 barrels per day in Q3 — a reversal from its earlier deficit estimate. This oversupply has pulled prices lower, offering relief to oil-importing nations like India.
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