On Thursday, July 31, Gift Nifty is indicating a turbulent start for the benchmark Nifty. As of 7:14 AM, the GIFT Nifty was trading near the 24,673 mark, down 181 points from its previous close.
That brings us to our call of the day, which suggests Nifty is likely to hang in the red as the trading theme in Indian markets revolves around:
Trump imposed tariffs as high as 25% on India, plus a penalty for buying Russian military equipment and oil, effective from August 1, 2025.
Asian markets traded mixed, while the US stock market ended mostly lower after the US Federal Reserve policy and Chair Jerome Powell’s statement.
| Sector | Impact |
| Information Technology (IT) | No direct tariff impact. U.S. slowdown remains a concern. Large-cap exporters like Infosys, HCL, Tech Mahindra may face more pressure than diversified firms like Coforge, Mphasis. |
| Pharmaceuticals | Currently exempt from tariffs. India supplies 45% of U.S. generics and 10–15%of biosimilars. Section 232 probe is a medium-term risk. |
| Auto Components | Sensitive to U.S. demand cycles. Companies like Samvardhana Motherson, Bharat Forge, and Bosch generate substantial export revenue from North America. |
| Steel & Aluminium | Already under Section 232 tariffs; excluded from new duties. Stocks like Tata Steel, Hindalco, JSW Steel may still react to trade sentiment. |
| Textiles | Small global share but vulnerable to sentiment. Companies like Welspun India, KPR Mill, and Vardhman Textiles may see short-term pressure. |
| Energy & Oil | Exempt from tariffs. Listed players like ONGC and Oil India expected to remain unaffected. Risks exist for unlisted players like Nayara Energy. |
| Macro Outlook | U.S. accounts for about 20%of India’s exports (~USD 87 billion in FY25). India’s economy remains resilient with strong domestic demand and low export dependence. |
Market participants are likely to react to Kaynes Technology India and Indus Tower's Q1 earnings, announced post-market on Wednesday.
Hindustan Unilever, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Mahindra and Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki India, Adani Enterprises, Coal India, Vedanta, Ambuja Cements, Eicher Motors, TVS Motor Company, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company, Mankind Pharma, Swiggy, Dabur India and JSW Energy will announce their Q1 earnings today.
On Wednesday, July 30, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers, offloading equities worth ₹850.04 crore, marking a streak of eight consecutive trading sessions of selling. In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) purchased shares worth ₹1,829.11 crore during the same session, extending their buying streak to 18 consecutive trading sessions.
On Wednesday, Indian equity benchmarks advanced for a second straight session, with the Nifty 50 ending above the 24,800 mark. The Sensex gained 143.91 points, or 0.18%, to close at 81,481.86, while the Nifty 50 moved up by 33.95 points, or 0.14%, to settle at 24,855.05.
U.S. stock markets ended Wednesday's volatile trading session on a mixed note. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, but comments from Chair Jerome Powell reduced hopes for a potential rate cut in September.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 171.71 points, or 0.38%, closing at 44,461.28. The S&P 500 edged down 7.96 points, or 0.12%, to settle at 6,362.90. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite gained 31.38 points, or 0.15%, ending the day at 21,129.67.
The US Federal Reserve has decided to maintain its benchmark interest rates within the 4.25% to 4.5% range for the fifth time in a row. This decision comes amid continued strength in the labour market and a historically low unemployment rate. However, inflation remains “somewhat elevated,” leading the Fed to hold off on any rate cuts. Comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell have dampened market expectations of a possible rate reduction in September.
The US economy posted stronger-than-expected growth in the second quarter, with GDP expanding at an annualised rate of 3.0%. This follows a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter, marking the first quarterly decline in GDP in three years. The latest data exceeded analysts' estimates of 2.4% growth. Notably, the size of the US economy surpassed the $30 trillion mark for the first time, before adjusting for inflation.
Gold prices bounced back after touching a one-month low in the previous session, as ongoing trade uncertainties renewed investor interest in bullion despite easing hopes of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut. Spot gold rose 0.6% to $3,295 per ounce. The previous session saw gold dip to its lowest since June 30.
WTI crude oil futures climbed past the $70 per barrel mark and Brent crude oil futures rose toward $73 per barrel mark on Thursday, marking their fourth consecutive gain and reaching a six-week peak. The upward move was driven by growing fears of a tightening global supply. Meanwhile, President Trump revealed new tariff measures on Indian exports and sanctions targeting India’s imports of Russian oil.
Following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy update and comments from Chair Jerome Powell, the U.S. dollar strengthened. The dollar index, which compares the greenback to major currencies like the yen and euro, climbed 1.01% to 99.89.
Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.
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