Diwali Stock Picks 2025: “Adani Renewables”- The Next Solar Stock to Watch

Business Model –

Adani Green Energy Ltd (AGEL) develops, owns and operates large scale solar, wind, and hybrid renewable projects, securing revenue through long-term PPAs with government and C&I customers.

AGEL stands at the forefront of India’s renewable energy revolution, having reached a significant operational milestone of 15.8 GW as of June 2025, making it the nation’s largest and fastest-growing pure-play renewable energy company. AGEL added 4,882 MW of green power capacities in the past 12 months, and Khavda accounted for 73.4% of this addition (3,582 MW), taking its installed base to 5.6 GW (~35.4% of total capacity). The 30 GW Khavda project (spread over 538 sq. km) will be completed by 2030, contributing ~60% of AGEL’s targeted capacity. AGEL is selective in bidding for new tenders, focusing on predictable and better returns given its significant locked-in capacity towards the 50 GW target. Of the approximately 36.5 GW total capacity, 31.5 GW is currently under PPA.

Operational excellence continues to be a hallmark of AGEL, with cutting-edge AI- and ML-enabled maintenance and monitoring through the Energy Network Operation Center, resulting in leading capacity utilization factors—28.0% for solar, 42.3% for wind, and 43.9% for hybrid assets in Q1 FY26. Beyond operational performance, AGEL’s commitment to ESG remains steadfast: the company is ranked first globally in FTSE Russell’s ESG score in the Alternative Electricity sub-sector, and has received India’s top power sector ranking from NSE Sustainability Ratings and CRISIL ESG. With repeat industry recognition and a best-in-class governance and sustainability framework, AGEL is well-positioned to accelerate India’s transition to clean, affordable energy, remaining a key driver of national decarbonization goals.

Robust capacity expansion over the next five years, deployment of advanced technologies, and focus on high-resource sites like Khavda should drive sustained growth in the forecasted period. Over FY25–28E, revenue, EBITDA, and net profit are projected to grow at a CAGR of 31.9%, 32.9%, and 58% to INR 25,705 Cr, INR 20,852 Cr, and INR 5,693 Cr, respectively, with EBITDA margins improving by 195 bps to 81.1% and net margins by 927 bps to 22.1%.

AGEL has received INR 9,350 cr from its promoter group after converting share warrants into equity, boosting promoter holding to 62.43%. This infusion will be used to repay shareholder loans and fund capital expenditure, supporting AGEL's goal of reaching 50 GW installed capacity by 2030.

Key consolidated financial data (INR Cr, unless specified)

Valuation call –

At CMP of INR 1,064, we recommend BUY for AGEL with a price target of INR 2,142 (22.9X FY27 EV/EBITDA), representing an upside of 101.3%.