How Reliance Industries Benefits from the India-US Trade Deal and Why the Stock Jumped Over 7%

While the headline trigger was geopolitical, the underlying reasons for the stock’s move lie in crude economics, refining capability, and easing regulatory overhangs.

India-US Trade Deal: The Immediate Market Trigger

Markets reacted strongly after US President Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with India, under which:

• US reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods were cut sharply to 18% from as high as 50%
• India agreed to lower trade barriers
• The US waived an additional 25% tariff penalty imposed earlier over India’s Russian oil purchases

The announcement removed a key uncertainty that had been weighing on Indian equities for months. Benchmark indices jumped nearly 5% in early trade, marking their biggest intraday surge in five years, with Reliance emerging as a heavyweight contributor to the rally.

Why Reliance Was a Direct Beneficiary

Potential Resumption of Venezuelan Crude Imports

A crucial element of President Trump’s remarks was the indication that India may resume crude oil purchases from Venezuela as part of a broader trade realignment. India has not imported Venezuelan crude since May 2025, but before that, Indian refiners were buying an average of around 70,000 barrels per day in 2024, with imports crossing 150,000 bpd in two peak months, according to Kpler data. 

Venezuelan crude is heavy and sour, which typically trades at a discount to lighter grades and this is precisely where Reliance Industries holds a structural advantage. Reliance operates some of the world’s most complex refineries, capable of processing extremely heavy and sour crude, enabling it to extract higher refining margins from discounted oil. 

Reduced Dependence on Russian Crude Is Not a Threat

Concerns that India may stop buying Russian oil pose minimal risk to Reliance and the broader refining sector. Before FY2023, Russian crude accounted for less than 2% of India’s total oil imports, indicating no structural dependence. Although discounted Russian oil surged into India after the Ukraine war and Reliance reportedly bought up to 600,000 bpd in 2025, the company confirmed it did not purchase any Russian crude in January 2026, signaling flexibility in sourcing.

India has demonstrated this adaptability before. Iranian crude once made up around 10% of imports, but following US sanctions in 2019, India quickly replaced those supplies with oil from the US and other producers. This proven ability to switch suppliers reduces long-term risk for Reliance’s refining operations.

Refining Economics Improves for Reliance

The trade deal and crude realignment offer multiple positives for Reliance:

• Access to discounted heavy crude improves refining margins
• Lower geopolitical risk around oil sourcing
• Reduced regulatory and tariff uncertainty
• Improved earnings visibility for its core energy business

Importantly, Reliance’s refining business had been under pressure due to uncertainty around Russian and Venezuelan crude flows. The latest developments make that overhang.

Stock Was Already Under Pressure Before the Rally

Before Tuesday’s surge, Reliance shares were down about 8% year-to-date, weighed down by weak investor sentiment. Concerns centred on uncertainty around crude sourcing, lower-than-expected Q3 performance, and sluggish discretionary spending impacting the retail business. The India-US trade deal acted as a sentiment reset, prompting investors to quickly re-price the stock. As of 03:13 pm, the stock price was trading at ₹1,434.70 per share, up by 3.19%.

Broader Market Tailwinds Add Fuel

The rally in Reliance was further amplified by favourable macro tailwinds. The rupee strengthened by over 1%, easing concerns around foreign portfolio outflows and improving investor confidence. Expectations of renewed foreign fund inflows gained traction, while export-oriented and capex-linked sectors surged, lifting overall market sentiment. Notably, all 16 major NSE sectoral indices traded in the green. Analysts highlighted that the trade deal improves earnings visibility and valuation comfort, particularly for large index heavyweights such as Reliance Industries.

Bonus Catalyst: Jio Studios Acquisition

Adding to the positive news flow, Reliance announced that its subsidiary Reliance Strategic Business Ventures Ltd acquired a 50.1% stake in Sikhya Entertainment for ₹150 crore.

The acquisition strengthens Jio Studios’ position in global content creation, aligning with Reliance’s long-term digital and media ambitions. While not a primary driver of the stock spike, it reinforced confidence in Reliance’s diversified growth strategy.

Bottom Line

Reliance Industries rallied sharply as the India-US trade deal removed a key geopolitical and tariff overhang, while the potential resumption of Venezuelan crude imports directly benefits its complex refineries. The exit from Russian oil does not materially impact margins, given Reliance’s proven sourcing flexibility, which also improves cost efficiency. Alongside this, broader market sentiment turned decisively positive. In essence, the trade deal strengthened Reliance’s refining economics, reduced uncertainty, and revived investor confidence, making it one of the biggest winners of the day.