On Tuesday, July 1 — the first day of the second half of CY2025 — the Nifty 50 and Sensex are likely to witness a positive start.
As of 7:18 AM, the GIFT Nifty was trading near the 25,633 mark, up by 32 points from its previous close, indicating a positive start for the Indian benchmark indices.
While Asian markets opened on a mixed note, US equities closed at record highs, adding to the upbeat sentiment. The S&P 500 closed at a record high of 6,204.95, rising 0.52% as investor sentiment improved on hopes that the U.S. Senate would pass the "One Big Beautiful Bill" tax package by the July 4 deadline.
Back home, despite Monday’s profit booking, the broader indices ended June in the green, marking their fourth consecutive monthly gain. On Monday, the Indian government released key economic data, including GST collections, IIP, and the fiscal deficit, which are likely to influence market movement on Tuesday, July 1
Historically, July has been one of the best-performing months for the market. Since 2014, the Nifty 50 has recorded only one negative close—in 2019. Since then, it has maintained a winning streak in July.
India’s gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections have doubled over the past five years, reaching a record ₹22.08 lakh crore in FY25, up from ₹11.37 lakh crore in FY21, according to government data. This marks a 9.4% year-on-year growth over ₹20.18 lakh crore collected in FY24 and the highest annual GST collection since its introduction in July 2017. The average monthly GST collection rose to ₹1.84 lakh crore in FY25, compared to ₹1.68 lakh crore in FY24 and ₹95,000 crore in FY22.
The number of registered taxpayers has grown from 65 lakh in 2017 to over 1.51 crore in 2025. A government statement on the GST's eighth anniversary noted that the tax system has significantly improved revenue collection, broadened the tax base, and made indirect taxation more efficient. GST, which replaced 17 state and central taxes and 13 cesses, now operates under a unified five-tier structure. Monthly collections hit new highs in 2025, with ₹2.37 lakh crore in April and ₹2.01 lakh crore in May; June figures are expected soon.
India reported a fiscal deficit of ₹13,163 crore for the April-May period of FY26, which is just 0.8% of the full-year fiscal deficit target for 2025-26. In comparison, the deficit for the same period in the previous year stood significantly higher at ₹50,615 crore.
Industrial activity in India, tracked by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), recorded a growth of 1.2% in May, the slowest in the last nine months. This marks a notable drop from the 6.3% growth registered in May of the previous year. The IIP growth for April was revised upward to 2.6%, still higher than May’s figure.
On Monday, June 30, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers, having sold equities worth ₹831.50 crore. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), on the other hand, bought shares totalling ₹3,497.44 crore during the same session.
On Monday, the Indian stock market snapped its four-day winning streak as investors opted to lock in profits after a sharp rally. Despite the day’s decline, the market managed to close the month on a positive note for the fourth straight time.
The Sensex dropped 452.44 points, or 0.54%, ending at 83,606.46, while the Nifty 50 slipped 120.75 points, or 0.47%, to settle at 25,517.05. Over the month, the Sensex posted gains of 2.65%, and the Nifty 50 rose by 3.10%.
Asian markets saw a cautious start, with Japanese stocks edging lower as investors remained wary about the potential effects of U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariff policies.
Japan’s manufacturing activity showed signs of growth in June, marking its first expansion in over a year. According to the final au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI, the index edged up to 50.1 in June, improving from 49.4 in May.
U.S. stock markets closed on a positive note Monday, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ending at all-time highs. The upbeat sentiment was driven by optimism around potential trade agreements and expectations of interest rate cuts. This marked the strongest quarterly performance in more than a year for key indices.
The biggest positive catalyst was Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s announcement that Canada would not implement the digital services tax scheduled to take effect on Monday—meeting President Donald Trump’s demand and paving the way for a broader bilateral trade agreement by July 21.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced by 275.50 points, or 0.63%, settling at 44,094.77. The S&P 500 rose by 31.88 points, or 0.52%, to close at 6,204.95, while the Nasdaq Composite ended 96.28 points higher, gaining 0.48% to finish at 20,369.73.
Over the quarter, the S&P 500 posted a gain of 10.57%, the Nasdaq soared 17.75%, and the Dow recorded a 4.98% rise.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that the United States and India are nearing the completion of a trade agreement. This update comes after President Donald Trump hinted at the development. Leavitt mentioned that the final touches are being put on the deal, and further details will be shared shortly by the President and his trade team.
Crude oil prices declined amid speculation that OPEC may raise output in August and growing concerns over a potential economic slowdown, influenced by the possibility of increased U.S. tariffs. Brent crude slipped 0.24% to trade at $67.61 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude eased 0.38%, settling at $64.86 per barrel.
Gold prices inch higher, supported by weakness in the US dollar. Spot gold rose by 0.3% to reach $3,312.25 per ounce.
The US dollar continued its downward trend, hitting a near four-year low against the euro. The dollar index, which tracks its performance against major currencies such as the yen and the euro, dropped 0.35% to 96.86, marking its sixth consecutive month of decline and its weakest first-half performance since the 1970s.
Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.
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