Musings on Hedge Trade: IT vs Pharma

Sometimes the market isn’t about being bullish or bearish.

It’s about asking: 𝑊ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑟𝑒𝑤𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑒𝑑?

Here’s a tentative thought I’ve been exploring on two of India’s large export-oriented sectors, both without any tariff-related concerns.

Let's look at IT.

Over the past few quarters, the IT sector has begun to show signs of structural pressure. AI-led efficiency may be a long-term positive for the economy but in the near term, it seems set to compress traditional outsourcing demand. Add to that other factors - global uncertainty, heavy ownership positioning and slower tech spending cycles - and IT could be vulnerable in a broader market correction.

Now consider Pharma.

The sector has been growing stronger. USFDA compliance has improved across several players. Pricing pressure in the US generics market appears to be stabilising. Earnings visibility looks healthier.

So here’s the thought experiment: 𝑊ℎ𝑎𝑡 ℎ𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑠 𝑖𝑓 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑐𝑡 𝑎 𝑟𝑒𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 ℎ𝑒𝑑𝑔𝑒 𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑒…

𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐨𝐧 𝐈𝐓 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐧 𝐏𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐦𝐚

If markets correct sharply, IT which is already sentiment-sensitive could potentially fall more than the broader indices.

If markets rise, Pharma, which is backed by improving fundamentals and sectoral tailwinds, could outperform on the upside.

Of course, no trade is without risk. Sector rotation can be unpredictable. And structural narratives don’t always play out in straight lines.

𝐖𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐮𝐜𝐡 𝐚 𝐡𝐞𝐝𝐠𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐞𝐧𝐯𝐢𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭?

𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑟: 𝐹𝑜𝑟 𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑢𝑟𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦. 𝑇ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑙𝑑𝑛'𝑡 𝑏𝑒 𝑠𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑎𝑠 𝑎 𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑜𝑛 𝑡𝑜 𝑏𝑢𝑦/ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑/𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑙 𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑜 𝑜𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑦𝑜𝑛𝑒'𝑠 𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠.