Ventura forecasts gold prices to test $3,600 an ounce by the end of 2025, reflecting a firm outlook amid ongoing global uncertainty. This prediction comes as gold recently hit a record high of $3,534.10 per ounce on August 7, surpassing the previous peak of $3,509.90 in April.
The yellow metal's upward trajectory is driven by several factors, including escalating geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic challenges, and sustained investment interest worldwide.
According to Ventura, these three factors could push gold prices higher by year-end:
The first factor supporting the gold rally includes strong inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs). India's gold ETF holdings surged 42% year-on-year to over 66 tonnes by June 2025, reflecting this trend.
Global gold demand in Q2 2025 rose 3% year-on-year to 1,249 tons, led by investment demand and ETF inflows despite weaker jewelry consumption.
Geopolitical conflicts and trade disputes, including the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East tensions, reinforce gold’s status as a safe-haven asset. Central banks are steadily adding to gold reserves. Central bank gold holdings increased to 36,345 tons, with India’s reserves at 880 tons.
Ventura said younger investors, fractional ownership models, and fintech platforms are driving the shift from physical jewelry to digital investment channels. Assets under management surged 88% to ₹64,777 crore, while investor accounts climbed 41% to 76.54 lakh.
“Gold’s strategic role in portfolios has strengthened as investors navigate an era of slower global growth, policy uncertainty, and elevated geopolitical risks,” said NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities at Ventura. He added that inflationary pressures, a softer US dollar, and potential US Federal Reserve rate cuts could support further upside in prices.
Over the past three years, gold delivered 23% average annual returns, outperforming Nifty 50’s 11%. In 2025 (till July), Comex gold gained 28.68% versus Nifty’s 4%, while in 2024, gold rose 27.23% against the index’s 8.8%. Gold’s negative correlation with equities continues to act as a portfolio hedge.
Ventura expects gold to rise through 2025, projecting prices near $3,600 an ounce, driven by risks, demand, and inflation.
Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.
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